Türkiye’de Jeopolitik Risk ve Turizm İlişkisi: Fourier Toda-Yamamoto Nedensellik Analizi

Economic growth is fueled by the tourism industry, which is crucial for emerging nations. The risk variables that can have an impact on the tourism industry, which has a very delicate structure, must be looked into. Researching the link between geopolitical risk and tourism has become necessary, especially in Turkey, where geopolitical tensions are at their highest. The study's objective is to investigate the connection between geopolitical risk and tourism in the context of Turkey. With the aid of the Fourier Toda-Yamamoto (TY) causality test and the Fractional Fourier Toda Yamamoto causality test, the relationship between the number of tourists, geopolitical risk, Brent oil, real effective exchange rate, and CPI in Turkey during the 2003:02-2021:01 period was examined in this study. The Fourier TY causality test revealed a causal relationship between BRENT and CPI variables and TS variables, as well as a causal relationship between TS variables and BRENT variables and a causal relationship between REER variables and CPI variables. Additionally, it can be observed that there is a causative relationship between BRENT and CPI and TS, as well as between TS and BRENT and CPI, according to the findings of the Fractional Fourier TY causality test used to determine whether the shocks are permanent. In addition, there is a one-way causality relationship from REER to CPI. The results show that the shocks are permanent. Based on the literature reviewed, while geopolitical risks are expected to negatively affect the number of tourists, no causal relationship could be found between geopolitical risks and the number of tourists in the case of Turkey.Gelişmekte olan ülkeler için hayati öneme sahip olan turizm sektörü, ekonomik büyümenin itici gücüdür. Son derece hassas bir yapıya sahip olan turizm sektörünü etkileyebilecek risk faktörlerinin araştırılması önem arz etmektedir. Özellikle jeopolitik gerilimlerin merkezinde yer alan Türkiye’de, jeopolitik risk ve turizm ilişkisinin araştırılması bir gereklilik olarak karşımıza çıkmıştır. Bu bağlamda çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye örneğinde jeopolitik risk ve turizm arasındaki ilişkiyi incelemektir. Bu çalışmada 2003:02-2021:01 döneminde Türkiye’nin turist sayısı ile jeopolitik risk, brent petrol, reel efektif döviz kuru ve TÜFE arasındaki ilişki Fourier Toda-Yamamoto (TY) nedensellik testi ve Kesirli Fourier Toda Yamamoto nedensellik testi yardımıyla analiz edilmiştir. Fourier TY nedensellik testi sonuçlarına göre, BRENT ve TÜFE değişkeninden TS değişkenine, TS değişkeninden BRENT değişkenine ve REER değişkeninden TÜFE değişkenine doğru bir nedensellik ilişkisi vardır. Ayrıca şokların kalıcı olup olmadığını test etmek için yapılan Kesirli Fourier TY nedensellik testi sonuçlarına göre BRENT ve TÜFE’den TS’ye, TS’den BRENT ve TÜFE’ye doğru nedensellik ilişkisinin olduğu görülmektedir. Ayrıca REER’den TÜFE’ye doğru tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi vardır. Elde edilen sonuçlar, şokların kalıcı olduğunu göstermektedir. İncelenen literatüre istinaden jeopolitik risklerin turist sayısını olumsuz etkilemesi beklenirken, Türkiye örneğinde jeopolitik risklerle turist sayısı arasında herhangi bir nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilememiştir

Küresel Risk Göstergeleri ile BİST-Turizm Endeksi Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisi

The aim of the study is to examine the causal relationship between the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), oil price, dollar index, and BIST-Tourism index in the context of the Global Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) between February 1997 and September 2022. To achieve this aim, the Fourier Toda Yamamoto (TY) causality test and the fractional Fourier TY causality test were used. The Fourier TY causality test results show that there is a one-way causative relationship between the dollar index and the BIST-Tourism index, between the VIX index and the global EPU index, and between the dollar index and oil price. In addition, it is seen that there is a bidirectional causal relationship between the dollar index and the global EPU index. According to the results obtained from the fractional Fourier TY causality test, there is a bidirectional causal relationship between BIST-tourism and global EPU and between BIST-tourism and oil price. In addition, a one-way causality relationship was found from the VIX index to the BIST-Tourism index, from the dollar index to the BIST-Tourism index, from the global EPU to the VIX index, and from the oil price to the dollar index. These results show that the shocks are permanent. Overall, the findings suggest that the interaction between stock prices and both national and global macroeconomic indicators is mainly a consequence of financial globalization. In other words, the liberalization of fund transfers as a result of the liberalization of money and capital markets has led to the emergence of a multidirectional interaction between many variables.Çalışmanın amacı, Şubat 1997-Eylül 2022 döneminde küresel EPU bağlamında VIX endeksi, petrol fiyatı, dolar endeksi ve BİST-Turizm endeksi arasındaki nedensel ilişkiyi incelemektir. Bu amaca ulaşmak için Fourier Toda Yamamoto (TY) nedensellik testi ve kesirli Fourier TY nedensellik testi kullanılmıştır. Fourier TY nedensellik testi sonuçlarına göre, dolar endeksinden BİST-Turizm endeksine, VIX endeksinden küresel EPU endeksine, petrol fiyatı ve dolar endeksinden VIX endeksine doğru tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmaktadır. Ayrıca dolar endeksi ve küresel EPU endeksi arasında çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkisinin olduğu görülmektedir. Kesirli Fourier TY nedensellik testinden elde edilen sonuçlara göre BIST-Turizm ve küresel EPU ile BIST-Turizm ve petrol fiyatı arasında çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi vardır. İlave olarak VIX endeksinden BIST-Turizm endeksine, dolar endeksinden BIST-Turizm endeksine, küresel EPU’dan VIX endeksine ve petrol fiyatından dolar endeksine doğru tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi saptanmıştır. Elde edilen bu sonuçlar şokların kalıcı olduğunu göstermektedir. Genel olarak, bulgular, hisse senedi fiyatları ile hem ulusal hem de küresel makroekonomik göstergeler arasındaki etkileşimin esas olarak finansal küreselleşmenin bir sonucu olduğunu göstermektedir. Diğer bir deyişle, para ve sermaye piyasalarının serbestleşmesi sonucunda fon transferlerinin serbestleşmesi, birçok değişken arasında çok yönlü bir etkileşimin ortaya çıkmasına neden olmuştur

The Relationship Between Geopolitical Risk and Credit Default Swap Premium: Evidence from Turkey

This study investigates the relationship between the geopolitical risk in Turkey arising out of the war and terror incidents happened in the region during the period 2003:01-2020:06 with the CDS premium. A two-step approach is undertaken for this assessment, in which an ARDL limit test and then a time-varying symmetric and asymmetric causality test are applied to study the possible causality vis-a-vis the subperiods. The ARDL limit test does not reject the hypothesis that there is a co-integrated relationship between CDS premium and geopolitical risk index. In addition, the time-varying symmetric and asymmetric test also identifies causality between CDS premium and geopolitical risk, and establishes periods where the latter influences the former variable both in a positive and negative way. In summary, both the ARDL limit test and the time-varying symmetric and asymmetric test deduce a causal relationship between the studied variables

Do Oil Prices Have an Effects on Food Prices? Fresh Evidences from Türkiye

Purpose – The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationships between oil prices and food prices for January 2003-September 2022 in Türkiye. Design/methodology/approach – Variable associations were examined using the RALS cointegration test. The RALS-ADL cointegration test uses information in non-dispersed errors. Thus, it produces more powerful predictions for non-normal distributions compared to cointegration tests. In addition, this test avoids widespread practices such as predetermining a particular functional form. Findings – The results show that the series have a cointegration connection. The DOLS, FMOLS, and Canonic cointegration approaches produced long-term coefficients in agreement with the discovery of a long-term association. Although the results of the applied tests were comparable, the results of the FMOLS and Canonik tests are substantially more comparable. Given that FMOLS technique is more effective than others and produces outcomes comparable to those of Canonik approach, its results have been interpreted in this situation. As a result, while having a positive sign, the exchange rate variable is not statistically significant. In terms of food prices, oil prices have a negative explanatory power. The CPI variable has a considerable impacts on both the present and future pricing of food. Our findings demonstrate that the price of oil does not always correlate with the price of food, and vice versa. Discussion – There are certain recommendations that can be made to researchers and policymakers based on the findings. Supporting contract farming, which has recently been mentioned, will improve food sufficiency and the balance of food stocks, particularly during times of crisis. On the demand side, the preference for locally produced foods can reduce the over-reliance on food imports, which frequently worsens the country's status with regard to food prices and may lower the dryness. From this vantage point, future research can contrast oil-exporting nations and oil-importing countries in terms of the food price-oil price connection, whereas the current study focuses on the relationships between oil prices and food prices in Türkiye

Efficiency and productivity analysis of Turkish public and private sugar factories: evidence from critic and eatwios methods

Bu çalışmanın amacı Türkiye’de şeker fabrikalarının (kamu-özel) 2018-2020 döneminde, etkinlik ve verimliliğini ortaya koymaktır. Şeker sanayisinin üretim etkinlik analizi ve toplam faktör verimlilikleri Critic ve Eatwios yöntemleri ile analiz edilmektedir. Elde edilen bulgulara göre; 2018, 2019 ve 2020 yıllarının tümünde en önemli girdi değişkeni geçici işçi sayısı iken, en az öneme sahip olan değişken ise 2018 yılında daimi işçi sayısı, 2019 ve 2020 yıllarında işlenen pancar miktarıdır. Çıktı değişkenlerine ait Critic skorları yıllar itibariyle farklılık göstermektedir. Buna göre tüm yıllarda posa en önemli çıktı değişkeni iken; 2018’de üretilen şeker miktarı, 2019 ve 2020 yıllarında ise melas en az öneme sahip çıktı değişkenleridir. Critic yöntemi ile girdi ve çıktı değişkenlerinin önem düzeylerinin belirlenmesinin ardından Eatwios yöntemiyle firmaların verimlilik düzeyleri hesaplanmıştır. Elde edilen bulgulara göre; tüm yıllarda Ö6 kodlu şeker fabrikası en verimli firma iken, Ereğli şeker fabrikası ikinci sırada yer almaktadır. Verimlilik düzeyi en düşük firma ise Erciş şeker fabrikasıdır. Yıllara göre verimlilik düzeyleri değerlendirildiğinde; 2018, 2019 ve 2020 yıllarında Ö6 kodlu şeker fabrikası en verimli firma iken, ikinci sırada 2018 ve 2020 yılında Ereğli şeker fabrikası, 2019 yılında ise Ilgın şeker fabrikası yer almaktadır.The purpose of this study is to exhibit the efficiency and productivity of the both publicly and privately owned sugar factories in Turkey between the years 2018-2020. The production efficiency of the sugar industry and its total factor productivity are analyzed via the Critic and Eatwios methods. The results obtained show that while the most significant input variable is the number of temporary workers for all years spanned, the factors with the least explanatory power are the number of permanent workers for 2018 and the amount of beet processed for the remaining years. The CRITIC scores of output variables also vary within time, and while pulp remains the most significant variable in the model, the amount of sugar produced and molasses are found to have the least significant explanatory power for the first and the remaining years, respectively. Following the determination of the levels of significance of variables via the CRITIC technique, the efficiency levels of companies are calculated by using EATWIOS, where it is put forward that while the factory coded O6 ranks the first among the sample for all years spanned, Ereğli ranks second, and the company with the lowest productivity level is Erciş Sugar Factory. When this analysis is partitioned vis-a-vis their time series trends, it is found out that while Ereğli ranks second in 2018 and 2020, Ilgın is the runner-up to O6 in the year 2019

Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Cause Environmental Pollution? Fresh Evidence From Developed Countries

The industrial revolution has dramatically altered the environment and ecosystem. So many scholars have empirically attempted to reveal the most influential anthropogenic factors on environmental degradation. For this purpose, this study examines the leading determinants of CO2 emissions in the context of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) for 14 developed countries within the framework of the extended stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence and technology (STIRPAT) environmental model from 1997–2018. For empirical modeling, CO2 emission is treated as the dependent variable, which is a strong proxy for environmental degradation. In addition to the GDP per capita, population density, and energy intensity (a proxy for technology), the basic model is extended to include variables such as EPU, renewable energy, trade openness, globalization, and information and communications technology (ICT) index. While the estimation results by the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) estimator, which are also supported by robustness analysis, suggest that GDP per capita and energy intensity are the main contributors to emission levels, population density has no significant impact on CO2. Furthermore, while renewable energy (in model 2), trade openness (in model 4), and globalization (in model 6) have negative impacts on CO2 emission, technology (in models 5 and 6) and EPU (in model 6) make marginal contributions to CO2